There are well known indicators of overconfidence in equity markets like high margin borrowing, shrinking short sales and record numbers of mergers and acquisitions. Bernard Baruch, the successful investor is reported to have said, “When beggars and shoeshine boys, barbers and beauticians can tell you how to get rich it is time to remind yourself that there is no more dangerous illusion than the belief that one can get something for nothing.”
And so your underrated blogger listened in silence as his fellow commissioners went on and on at the inaugural meeting in early November about how well the city was managed, how solvent it was, and how superior our city’s finances were compared to others. We have a 30 plus million dollar pension fund, half invested in stocks.
The reminder was timely; I owned only one stock and I’ve held for so long that I’d nearly forgotten about. I sold it the next day and made a modest profit.